This can’t be what Tom Brady envisioned when he decided to postpone his retirement and come back for one more season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The season has featured back-to-back losses to potential playoff teams in the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, which is understandable. It also has featured another set of back-to-back losses to teams in transition, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers, who were featuring backups at key positions such as quarterback and running back. Now the 3-4 Bucs are 1½-point home favorites Thursday night against the 4-3 Baltimore Ravens after opening as three-point favorites a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay was actually the underdog in this game earlier in the week, and the latest move appears to be sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers, a curious development considering how many injuries they’re dealing with.
When the Bucs host the Ravens and try to avoid three consecutive losses for the first time in 20 years, Tampa will be without the injured G Luke Goedeke, DB Antoine Winfield Jr., WR Russell Gage, CB Carlton Davis, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and TE Cam Brate. All are out tonight.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 27, 2022Still, it’s hard to trust the Buccaneers in this spot. They haven’t covered the spread since Week 2, and they’ve failed to cover by almost six points per contest, losing two straight games as heavy favorites. Brady isn’t the issue — he has been the league’s 14th-best passer per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating and the fifth-best per Pro Football Focus — but the rest of the squad isn’t performing consistently enough to win in any given week, no matter the opponent.
The under is tempting, especially after the total opened at 43½ at Circa Sports and has since moved to 45 or higher at most sportsbooks. Neither team has been part of many overs (they are a combined 3-11 against the over) and they have missed the total, on average, by a little more than a field goal. Most of that is driven by Tampa Bay games missing the over by an average of almost 10 points.
But if the spread and the under aren’t compelling, here are some other Thursday night picks that could be.
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Neil Greenberg’s pick
Lamar Jackson under 33½ yards for longest completion
The Ravens’ offense has changed over the past few weeks, and Jackson isn’t airing out the ball as much. During Weeks 1 to 3, his average pass was thrown almost 11 yards past the line of scrimmage. Since Week 4, that has dwindled to 7.6 air yards per attempt. His receivers over the past four games have earned 4.1 yards after the catch, compared with 5.8 yards after the catch during Baltimore’s first three games. Jackson has had four passes produce more than 34 yards and none since Week 3 against the New England Patriots. Tampa Bay has allowed just four completions of at least 34 yards in seven games.
Matt Bonesteel’s pick
Ravens first-quarter moneyline -110 (DraftKings)
The Buccaneers have struggled in part because they have gotten off to slow starts, posting zero first-quarter touchdowns in seven games and only 15 total points. They’re averaging 5.3 yards per play in the first quarter, which actually is slightly better than their overall average of 5.1, but they have struggled to do much of anything when they get remotely close to the goal line. In seven first quarters, the Buccaneers have run all of seven plays inside their opponents’ 20-yard line and have not advanced past the 15. The Ravens’ late-game collapses are well-documented, but they’re averaging 5.3 points in the first quarter (which ranks ninth in the NFL) and have allowed only 1.9, which is tied for the lowest in the league with the same Panthers team that kept the Bucs off the scoreboard in the first quarter of Sunday’s win.
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